The best thing a speculator can do is follow his rules and NOT ignore what he has learned over the years. This is particularly true when those hard learned rules came at a costly market tuition. My rules tell me to buy risk now. As I type this, the sp500 futures are trading 1168.
To answer the bond questions. The volatility signal is still on. Volatility is expected to move higher and I have found the market will do this in the most efficient way possible. It looks like this may be with a sharp move higher in prices followed by a larger, sharper move lower. I should add, AUDUSD is now giving the same volatility signal with the previous two same signals taking place July 29th and Sep 1st, both important highs. Difference this time is AUDUSD prices have been in a short term trend lower which suggests a low is nearby.
3 comments:
Thank you for your recent posting: you speak persuasively in stating that your’ “hard learned rules came at a costly market tuition.” So saying, in carefully reviewing your current stance on TLT, you point out that “the sharp move higher will be followed by a sharper move lower.” In carefully weighing your forecast, I reviewed several of your previous posts. Just know that the last time you insisted that TLT was headed “MUCH” lower (see your post of July 24), it went in the complete opposite direction, from 95 to 105 in ten days! Am I misinterpreting? As a longstanding reader of your market blog, I stand to be corrected.
If that turns out to be correct I am very impressed...and also very happy since I have developed an indicator that shows the same.
"My rules tell me to buy risk now." - so what risk asset classes are buyable?
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